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Sharkbait
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Posted 2 Years, 7 Months ago #1
Be afraid of the weather, be very, very afraid.

From: http://forests.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=9567

Early spring heatwave brings fear of global warming to China

Source: Copyright 2002, Agence France Presse Date: April 1, 2002

Record spring temperatures in northern China have set-off alarm bells among meteorologists who fear global warming could prompt a series of natural disasters, state press reported Monday.

Northern China witnessed unseasonally warm weather in Beijing, Tianjin and Shenyang on Sunday, with the mercury rising to a record high of 28.7 degrees Celsius (83.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in Beijing.

Temperatures were expected to remain unusually warm for the rest of the week as the nation's weathermen announced the arrival of summer weeks in advance. According to Guo Hu, assistant head of China's Central Meteorological Observatory, fears of global warming have also been a prompted by unusually high temperatures throughout the winter.

Temperatures in Beijing this January were an average of two degrees Celsius (3.64 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal, Guo was quoted by the Beijing Morning Post as saying Monday.

In February, temperatures were on average a massive five degrees Celsius above normal, while in March the mercury rose three degrees Celsius higher than average, he said.

Experts are concerned that higher temperatures brought on by global warming could bring drought to northern China while simultaneously causing disastrous floods in the country's south.

Such predictions were first made in the early and mid-1990s, when scientists were still debating whether global warming was due to human activities, like burning fossil fuels, or was part of a natural trend that periodically effects the earth's weather.

However, for Chinese meteorologists, 16 years of increasingly warmer winters was enough to convince them the relationship to human activity is undeniable, Zhao Zhenguo of the State Meteorological Center told the People's Daily last week.

'As far as China is concerned, warm winters began to occur in 1986 and since then our country has witnessed 16 years of warm winters,' he said.

China has witnessed especially damaging floods five times since 1991, mainly in the southern and central regions around, and south of the Yangtze River basin, with economic losses and deaths growing successively as the intensity of the flooding increased.

More than 1,200 people died in flooding along the Huai and Yangtze Rivers in 1991, while 4,150 were killed when worse floods ravaged the Yangtze River basin in 1998.

Meanwhile, northern China was struck by three years of drought between 1992 to 1997 and then again from 1999 to the present.

The ongoing drought in northern China was fueling desertification and threatening human and animal life with water shortages, Zhai Panmao, another researcher at the State Meteorological Center told the People's Daily.
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tialhoyes
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Posted 2 Years, 7 Months ago #2
Be afraid of someone posting a weather report from a year ago and thinking that somehow that i's related to global warming.
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VeronikaLous
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Posted 2 Years, 7 Months ago #3
You're not treating the issue fairly. The scaremonger story has 'global warming' right in the title. It must be true. Right? Where are the scaremonger stories this year? The weather hasn't been hot enough, yet, you say? Point made.
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fifngoopuiui
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Posted 2 Years, 7 Months ago #4
I'm just tired of seeing articles from different areas of the world that imply a local abnormally hot or cold, or wet, or dry condition is somehow related to global warming.

Maybe you were being sarcastic in your original post, in which case I apologize.
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Gastrok
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Posted 2 Years, 7 Months ago #5
Oh, Matt! This article is more than just a weather report. The article talks about climate too.
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Dom
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Posted 2 Years, 6 Months ago #6
That's all very nice, but it shouldn't be extrapolated to infer some kind of relationship to global warming. I don't have a problem with global warming research done on a global scale. What I do have a problem with is articles that discuss local weather abnormalities and then go on to talk about global warming as if it's just a given that the global warming is responsible. These articles appear all the time and are not written by anyone with any expertise in global warming. The articles do nothing but scare people into thinking they are witnessing the effects of global warming right in their own backyards, when it's just as likely that they are witnessing natural cycles that have absolutely nothing to do with global warming.
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Tesselator
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Posted 2 Years, 6 Months ago #7
Yes, I agree. The mathematics of global warming are such that any SINGLE weather event can not be attributed to anthropogenic global warming. However, articles that report climate changes like this one, are likely to be eye witness reports of global warming.

This report of 16 years of above normal winter temperatures is particularly damming. Think about it: a 1 in 2 chance of a warm winter in China is a good approximation, unless one has better data. (I'll bet that yearly averaged winter temperatures aren't independent events, but I'd like to see actual data.) 16 years of above normal winter temperatures is a 1 in 2^16 event, or 1 in 65536! (It would take quite a bit of dependence between winters to reduce this number.)

Is this a report of something natural or man made? To find out one needs to look at recent changes our atmosphere's energy balance sheet. Please see graph from NASA:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/si2000/

What has added the most energy to the surface and near surface? The green line, anthropogenic Green House Gasses is the answer.

Please see this other page from our atmosphere's energy balance sheet:
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/figspm-3.htm

Another key is the distribution of the warming: The geographic profile of the warming very strongly indicates greenhouse gas forcing. Warming occurs first at high latitudes where the air is dryer, and greenhouse gasses get less competition from water vapor.

One may make his or her own world warming map automatically by going to: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/update/gistemp/ do_nmap.py?sat=4&sst=...

Note the higher the northern latitude, the faster the warming. Also note the lack of data in the southern hemisphere and the Antarctic, in particular. (The data have been corrected for any 'urban heat island' effect by the 'GISS 2001 analysis.'

Many natural climate changes, a warming sun for instance, would not distribute themselves about the globe this way.
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blues
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Posted 2 Years, 6 Months ago #8
They very well could be eye witness report of global warming. Then again maybe they aren't. Or maybe some are and some aren't. No one knows.

The point is these articles have no business making the connection between unusual weather in City XXX to global warming. When these articles do make the claim that their local weather problems could be related to global warming all that does is spread the hysteria to people that just assume the claims to be true. Now if they wanted to print an article that said 'we've been experiencing an usually long dry spell the last 10 years. Some scientists think this could be related to global warming, however, this could also just be a part of the natural temperature cycles' That would be fine. However, that is not quite as scary and therefore wouldn't sell as many papers.

I agree, but that still should not be extrapolated to infer some relationship to global warming.

Again, I do not have a problem believing that global warming is occuring and could be a major problem.
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Sharkbait
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Posted 2 Years, 6 Months ago #9
Some years from now, if the eco-scam continues to have 'legs':

Three Gorges DamXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXGlobal Warming Raises Water Level in China

Dave Simpson
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