Fears vital Russia will sink climate change protocol

Fears vital Russia will sink climate change protocol

By Paul Brown in London February 27 2003

Pressure on Russia to ratify the Kyoto protocol is intensifying amid fears in the European Union that Moscow may scupper the agreement to combat climate change.

The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, promised last year that the ratification process would be under way in parliament by now, but no progress has been made.

The United States and Australia have already withdrawn their support, putting Russia in a crucial position. Its support will make or break the pact.

The German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, and the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, have written to Mr Putin in the past two months asking him to act, so far without success.

So concerned is the EU about the lack of progress that a delegation of the leaders of three countries will be sent to see Mr Putin next month.

Russian doubters of the Kyoto protocol's value have organised a world climate conference for September 29 in Moscow. The conference is to 're-examine' the science on the issue, seen as casting doubt upon it, a position that will delight the US President, George Bush, who wants to destroy the protocol.

Behind the conference are the two scientists who lead Russia in the climate talks, Alexander Bedritski and Yuri Israel.

Both are respected members of the Russian Academy of Sciences and apparently believe climate change might be good for Russia. They believe global warming might pep up cold regions and allow more crops to be grown, making the country wealthier.

Developed countries that are responsible for 55per cent of greenhouse gas emissions must ratify the protocol for it to come into force.

With the US and Australia refusing to sign, Russia's co-operation is needed to reach the required figure. All the other necessary countries have already ratified the pact or are doing so.

Currently there are 104 parties, representing over 44per cent of eligible emissions - Russian's emissions would automatically bring the protocol into legal force.

All the developed countries have a target to reduce emissions on 1990 levels by 2010 based on the protocol becoming law this year. If a country fails to reach its target by domestic measures, it is entitled to buy surplus carbon from any country that has already exceeded its target.

This provision could make Russia a lot of money.

It has already passed its reduction target due to the collapse of its economy in the 1990s. Several countries not expected to reach their targets would be offering hard cash for Russian surpluses.

A second scheme under the protocol allows clean energy projects and carbon saving schemes inside Russian borders to be financed by other countries seeking carbon credits.

Dr Paul Jefferiss, head of environment policy at Britain's Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, said: 'Russia's ratification is vitally important. If she doesn't go ahead, years of hard-won agreements will be placed in jeopardy, and meanwhile the climate continues to change.'

The Guardian

Hi,

I am afraid that won't do:

Kyoto Protocol, Article 25.1:

'This Protocol shall enter into force on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55 per cent of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Parties included in Annex I, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.'

thanks ciao