Russian stalling could kill Kyoto consensus

Russian stalling could kill Kyoto consensus

By MARK MacKINNON From Saturday's Globe and Mail

POSTED AT 1:07 AM EST Saturday, Mar. 1, 2003

Moscow - Russia has delayed ratification of the international Kyoto Protocol on climate change, and two of its top scientists have begun to question the science underpinning it, developments that environmentalists say could kill the painstakingly crafted deal.

Although Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said last year that the Russian parliament would ratify the accord, a bill to begin that process has not yet been put to the Duma. The original schedule was to have the accord ratified by the end of last year.

One cabinet minister said recently that Russia no longer has a set timetable for ratification, a stall that could put the entire deal in jeopardy. Under a series of complex mechanisms, the accord will come into force only when countries representing 55 per cent of global emissions sign the pact.

The 100-plus countries that have ratified account for just 44 per cent. Russia, with 17.4 per cent of the global total, is the only remaining country that could make the pact binding on its own, since the United States has dropped out of negotiations.

The wait may be long. At a recent climate-change conference in India, two members of the Russian parliament told their international colleagues that only about half the Duma backs ratification of the Kyoto accord, and that its passage is by no means certain.

More troubling to some environmentalists, the two leading Russian scientists on the file, Alexander Bedritsky and Yuri Israel, have been questioning whether the deal is scientifically sound, even suggesting Russia might benefit if global warming makes its colder regions more productive.

Mr. Israel, vice-chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - the body that oversees the entire Kyoto process - said recently that the treaty did nothing to mitigate the long-term effects of climate change, words that were likely music to the ears of U.S. President George W. Bush, who noisily pulled his country out of the treaty in 2001.

Some are worried that the United States may be putting pressure on Russia to follow its lead on Kyoto, perhaps in exchange for U.S. support of Russia's application to join the World Trade Organization.

'There's some funny business, as always, going on within the politics of Russia right now,' said Gerry Scott, climate-change campaigner for the David Suzuki Foundation. 'There's always the concern that there would be linkage between Kyoto and other issues that are of concern to Russia and the U.S.'

After a recent meeting in Moscow with his American counterparts, deputy foreign minister Georgy Mamedov refused to say whether Russia will ratify the treaty and said only that the United States and Russia will work together to fight climate change.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will have the final say on the matter, has not backed away from his public commitment to push the accord through to ratification.

Most scientists worldwide believe that signing the accord could prove greatly beneficial to the Russian economy, since the collapse of industry at the end of the Soviet era means Russia has already met its target of reducing emissions to 1990 levels by 2010. Russia will likely be well below those levels, meaning it could make billions of dollars selling emission 'credits' to countries that exceed their allotted amounts.

Russian stalling could kill Kyoto consensus

By MARK MacKINNON From Saturday's Globe and Mail

POSTED AT 1:07 AM EST Saturday, Mar. 1, 2003

Moscow - Russia has delayed ratification of the international Kyoto Protocol on climate change, and two of its top scientists have begun to question the science underpinning it, developments that environmentalists say could kill the painstakingly crafted deal.

Although Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said last year that the Russian parliament would ratify the accord, a bill to begin that process has not yet been put to the Duma. The original schedule was to have the accord ratified by the end of last year.

One cabinet minister said recently that Russia no longer has a set timetable for ratification, a stall that could put the entire deal in jeopardy. Under a series of complex mechanisms, the accord will come into force only when countries representing 55 per cent of global emissions sign the pact.

The 100-plus countries that have ratified account for just 44 per cent. Russia, with 17.4 per cent of the global total, is the only remaining country that could make the pact binding on its own, since the United States has dropped out of negotiations.

The wait may be long. At a recent climate-change conference in India, two members of the Russian parliament told their international colleagues that only about half the Duma backs ratification of the Kyoto accord, and that its passage is by no means certain.

More troubling to some environmentalists, the two leading Russian scientists on the file, Alexander Bedritsky and Yuri Israel, have been questioning whether the deal is scientifically sound, even suggesting Russia might benefit if global warming makes its colder regions more productive.

Mr. Israel, vice-chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - the body that oversees the entire Kyoto process - said recently that the treaty did nothing to mitigate the long-term effects of climate change, words that were likely music to the ears of U.S. President George W. Bush, who noisily pulled his country out of the treaty in 2001.

Some are worried that the United States may be putting pressure on Russia to follow its lead on Kyoto, perhaps in exchange for U.S. support of Russia's application to join the World Trade Organization.

'There's some funny business, as always, going on within the politics of Russia right now,' said Gerry Scott, climate-change campaigner for the David Suzuki Foundation. 'There's always the concern that there would be linkage between Kyoto and other issues that are of concern to Russia and the U.S.'

After a recent meeting in Moscow with his American counterparts, deputy foreign minister Georgy Mamedov refused to say whether Russia will ratify the treaty and said only that the United States and Russia will work together to fight climate change.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will have the final say on the matter, has not backed away from his public commitment to push the accord through to ratification.

Most scientists worldwide believe that signing the accord could prove greatly beneficial to the Russian economy, since the collapse of industry at the end of the Soviet era means Russia has already met its target of reducing emissions to 1990 levels by 2010. Russia will likely be well below those levels, meaning it could make billions of dollars selling emission 'credits' to countries that exceed their allotted amounts.