Who can beat Bush

See complete analysis of 23 possible winning Democratic tickets at
http://members.aol.com/ourprez04

First of all, let me congratulate you for using your AOL web space for something of interest. If I see another page full of doll .gifs, slow- loading animation, text messaging code and horrible poetry, I swear I'll rip my eyes out through my colon.

Second, I hope as the campaign gets under way, you'll be diligent about updating your site. Out of the four Presidential candidates, I don't see one with a snowball's chance of even coming close to Bush. My reasoning:

1) Kerry (MA) and Baucus (MT) - Not enough backing. Strong candidates typically come from states with high #s of electoral votes. Carter (GA), Reagan (CA), and the Bush's (TX), for example. Montana? Puleeze.

2) Edwards (NC) - He's got the good looks to appeal to the MTV vote (Don't knock it - it got Clinton in), but he hails from the middle of the Republican-locked South. As Gore showed in 2000, if you can't take your home state, you face a hard fight.

3) Graham (FL) - Ok, I'll grant that he hails from a major pop. state. Certainly Florida plays a key role in the electoral college. But the Republicans are going to be all over his double bypass. Aside from any stray pretzels, Bush Jr. is as healthy as a horse. Anyone who lived through the Reagan wounding and Al Haig's 'coup' should have some serious concerns about a wartime leader with a weak heart.

I'd like to see Hilary run, if for nothing else to see her resulting numbers and to see if any of her hubby's debating skill has rubbed off. However, she would do much better letting Bush have '04 and taking a stab vs. Cheney in '08 (assuming he lives that long).

Sorry about the ramble.

The state of Massachusetts has a mixed history on the modern presidential stage. It's a tie, actually, with Kennedy squeaking past and Dukakis getting walloped. Kerry has many fine attributes of his own, and should he be able to win the primaries, which is possible, tickets with him and a strong Southerner will have (one hopes if one is a Democrat), a certain ring more like Kennedy / Johnson than Dukakis / Bentsen. There are several tickets which could fit that bill and have wide appeal.

Culturally, a representative of Montana, or Wyoming, on the national level, like Cheney or Baucus, appeals to the whole country. They represent the West and have a certain appeal, in a way that candidates like Clinton and Carter 'represented' the South despite the fact that Arkansas and Georgia are not exactly electoral powerhouses. I do believe there are Baucus tickets with a Southerner for vice president that people across the nation would feel comfortable pulling the lever for against Bush, especially if the economy or the war are going badly, or some other circumstance has arisen to weaken Bush politically.

I don't think there's much reason to believe he couldn't take his home state, especially if he has won in the primaries and chooses a good vice president from the South or West, and gets some breaks. As you say, it happened for Clinton.

The Reagan shooting was an instance of what happens when no emergency plans are in place, and administrations since have learned from that, now planning their emergency plans during the transition, and making sure everyone is on the same page, which is critically important. In the case of Eisenhower and Nixon, secrecy surrounded the president's health, and Nixon was not even informed that he has suffered a heart attack. The Reagan case was a bit more open, with his health definitely in jeopardy, but a reluctance on the part of George H. W. Bush to move to become acting president unless an actual decision of the president was needed and it was unable to be obtained from Reagan. Under the 25th Amendment, this was perfectly permissible and safe, since a letter from Bush to the House and Senate would have given him the authority to act.

I doubt Cheney will be the nominee in '08 for the GOP, and Hillary has said she won't run this time. (In line for 2008 for the GOP: John McCain, Bill Frist, Christie Whitman, Colin Powell, Donald Rumsfeld, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, George Pataki, Rudy Giuliani, Dirk Kempthorne, Tom Ridge, Frank Keating, John Engler, Mike Huckabee, Bill Owens, Don Nickles, Elizabeth Dole, Lamar Alexander, Steve Forbes, and Alan Keyes, so that's a pretty crowded field already.) My site is hopefully grounded in reality. Someone will win the primaries and go head to head with Bush / Cheney if Cheney lives until November 2004. I want it to be the strongest ticket possible, and I think my web site reflects that goal, of trying to inform voters before they hit their primary ballots. I try to update at least daily.